By: Trina Thai
The Biden-Harris administration has established a groundbreaking climate regulation aiming to guarantee that most passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States will be all-electric or hybrid models by 2032.[1]
Electric vehicles (EVs) possess the capacity to transform the transportation landscape in the United States, markedly reducing carbon emissions and paving the path for substantial advancements in addressing climate change.[2] Transportation holds considerable sway in an individual’s daily routine,[3] and people tend to embrace significant changes more readily once those behaviors become socially accepted norms.[4]
Burning fossil fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, releases carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.[5] This buildup of CO2 is warming the Earth’s atmosphere, causing noticeable shifts in climate patterns,[6] notably, marking 2023 as the hottest summer ever recorded.[7] In the United States, the transportation sector is the largest source of emissions, accounting for 38 percent of energy-related emissions in 2021.[8]
Electric vehicles are central to President Biden’s plan to combat global warming, and, in turn, has become a contentious issue in the 2024 presidential campaign.[9] Former President Donald Trump, who is running for reelection, has attempted to exploit the EV debate by criticizing their performance and cost. [10]
Labor support has been crucial to President Biden’s political coalition and his image as a champion for the middle class.[11] The United Auto Workers (UAW), representing 146,000 workers at the Detroit Three automakers,[12] had endorsed Biden for reelection.[13] However, shortly after the new proposed tailpipe emissions limits,[14] UAW president, Shawn Fain, stated the union was withholding its endorsement of Biden’s reelection campaign due to concerns about the transition to electric vehicles.[15]
As EV production ramps up, conventional vehicle production may decline, potentially leading to job losses from the closure of production lines that make internal combustion engine and transmission parts.[16] The auto manufacturing workforce may shrink as EV sales grow, or high-wage assembly jobs could be replaced by lower-wage battery-related jobs.[17] For example, when General Motors’ Ultium battery joint venture began production in 2022, employees started at $15.50 per hour, half of the top wage at assembly plants.[18]
Unionized auto workers are concerned about a rapid shift to electric vehicles, as they contain fewer parts and thus require fewer workers to manufacture.[19] Additionally, many new EV plants are being constructed in southern United States, where the workforce is predominately non-union.[20]
This situation can be likened to concerns raised in the UAW strike against the Detroit Big Three in 2023, which was partly focused on the transition to electric vehicles.[21] A major union demand, alongside a 40 percent wage increase backed by President Biden during his visit to a UAW picket line, is job security for union members amidst the auto industry reshaping itself.[22] The union sought a guaranteed right to strike when internal combustion plants close and compensation for displaced workers during transitions, such as the shift to EVs.[23]
The auto industry employs thousands of voters in Michigan, a key swing state that could impact the presidential election outcome in November.[24] President Biden will need both the cooperation from the auto industry[25] and support from unionized auto workers for implementation widespread use of EVs in the United States, as well as a successful election.[26]
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles in America could pave the way to a more sustainable future. However, this transition is complex, involving political challenges geared towards obtaining reelection and concerns over the auto manufacturer job stability. The outcome hinges on the choices and compromises made, which could result in environmental progress, political conflict, disruptions in the job market, or a combination of the three.
[1] Coral Davenport, Biden Administration Announces Rule Aimed at Expanding Electric Vehicles, N.Y. Times (Mar. 21, 2024, 3:13 AM),https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/climate/biden-phase-out-gas-cars.html [hereinafter Biden Administration Announces Rule]
[2] See Joseph Glandorf, On the Move: Unpacking the Challenges and Opportunities of Electric Vehicles, Env. and Energy Study Institute (Nov. 5, 2020), https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/on-the-move-unpacking-the-challenges-and-opportunities-of-electric-vehicles.
[3] See U.S. Dep’t of Transp., National Household Travel Survey Daily Travel Quick Facts, Subsection to Bureau of Transportation Statistics (May 31, 2017), https://www.bts.gov/statistical-products/surveys/national-household-travel-survey-daily-travel-quick-facts (stating that 87% of daily trips take place in a personal vehicle, 91% of people commute using a personal vehicle, Americans take 1.1 billion trips a day [four for every person in the U.S], and the U.S. daily travel averages 11 billion miles a day [almost 40 miles per person per day]).
[4] Anna Shestakova et al., Electrophysiological precursors of social conformity, 8 Soc. Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 756, 756-763 (2013)(“…past research on social influence has demonstrated that people often change their behavior in light of other people’s behavior or opinions. In general, people are motivated to win approval and avoid rejection by conforming to others’ expectations.”) (available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nss064).
[5] See Carbon Pollution from Transportation,EPA, https://www.epa.gov/transportation-air-pollution-and-climate-change/carbon-pollution-transportation (last updated on May 11, 2023).
[6] Id.
[7] Lauren Sommer & Rebecca Hersher, 2023 was the hottest year on record. Is this how it’s going to be now?, NPR (Jan. 9, 2024, 7:20 AM),https://www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1221827923/2023-hottest-year-record-climate-change.
[8] Id; see also Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the Transportation Sector, Cong. Budget Off., (Dec. 2022), https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58861.
[9] See Biden Administration Announces Rule, supra note 1.
[10] See Allan Smith, With violent rhetoric, Trump fights electric vehicles to defeat Biden in Michigan, NBC News (Apr. 9, 2024, 11:00 AM),https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-fights-electric-vehicles-defeat-biden-michigan-violent-rhetoric-rcna145689.
[11] See Coral Davenport, Biden Administration Is Said to Slow Early Stage to Shift to Electric Cars, N.Y. Times (Feb. 17, 2024),https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/climate/biden-epa-auto-emissions.html [hereinafter Slow Early Stage to Shift to Electric Cars].
[12] See Elizabeth Blessing, Big Three Automakers: Definition, Companies, Market Cap and Share, Investopedia (Apr. 18, 2022),https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bigthree.asp (“The Big Three often refers to the three largest car manufacturers in North America: General Motors, Stellantis [formerly Chrysler], and Ford Motor Company.”).
[13] Joseph White, Biden’s drive for EVs collides with Detroit’s profit machines, Reuters (Feb. 15, 2024, 11:56 AM),https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bidens-drive-evs-collides-with-detroits-profit-machines-2024-02-15/.
[14] Camila Domonoske & Michael Copley, In a boost for EVs, EPA finalizes strict new limits on tailpipe emissions, NPR (Mar. 20, 2024, 11:34 AM),https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239092833/biden-epa-auto-emissions-evs (discussing EPA’s finalized strict rules on vehicle emissions to accelerate its transition to electric vehicles, to meet goal that President Biden set in 2021).
[15] See Slow Early Stage to Shift to Electric Cars, supra note 11.
[16] Growth in Electric Vehicle Manufacturing: A Factor in the 2023 United Auto Workers (UAW) Negotiations 1, Cong. Rsch. Serv., (Nov. 16, 2023), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12279.
[17] Id.
[18] Id.
[19] See Slow Early Stage to Shift to Electric Cars, supra note 11.
[20] See Ben Tracy & Analisa Novak, EV battery manufacturing energizes southern communities in “Battery Belt”, CBS News (Oct. 4, 2023, 9:30 AM),https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ev-battery-manufacturing-energizes-southern-communities-battery-belt/.
[21] See Jim Motavalli, The UAW Strike Is About the EVs, Sierra (Oct. 5, 2023),https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/uaw-strike-about-evs.
[22] Id.
[23] See id.
[24] See Biden Administration Announces Rule, supra note 1.
[25] Slow Early Stage to Shift to Electric Cars, supra note 11 (“The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents 42 car companies that produce about 97 percent of the new vehicles sold in the United States, asked the administration for the slowdown sought by the United Auto Workers.”).
[26] Id. (“Some analysts said the trade-off, relaxing the rules to give auto companies and workers what they want, could be worth it if it helps Biden win the election, since Trump has made it clear that if he wins, he plans to roll back the rules entirely.”); see also See Biden Administration Announces Rule, supra note 1.